5,200+ Cards · Probability Model · Expected Value · Free
Grading Probability Estimator
Don't guess — calculate. Input your card's condition, get the probability of every PSA grade, expected graded value, and a clear should-you-grade verdict.
1. Select a Card
2. Assess Condition
Rate each aspect of your card's condition. Be honest — optimistic ratings lead to disappointment.
Corners3/5 — Average
Minor wear on 1-2 corners, slight fuzzing
Edges3/5 — Average
Minor edge wear, slight roughness on 1-2 edges
Surface3/5 — Average
Minor surface imperfections, small print dots
Centering3/5 — Average
Slightly off-center (60/40)
3. Grading Service
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is the grading probability estimate?+
The tool uses statistical modeling based on condition factors that PSA, BGS, CGC, and SGC graders evaluate. Results are probability estimates — actual grades depend on many factors including print quality, era-specific leniency, and individual grader judgment. Use this as a decision-making guide, not a guarantee.
What factors affect grading probability?+
Four main factors determine your grade probability: corners (30% weight), edges (25% weight), surface condition (25% weight), and centering (20% weight). Corners and edges are the most common reasons for grade reductions. Centering is often the difference between a PSA 9 and PSA 10.
When is grading worth it?+
Grading is worth it when the expected graded value minus grading costs exceeds your raw card value. Generally, cards worth $50+ raw with a realistic chance at PSA 9 or 10 are the best candidates. Lower-value cards need very high gem mint probability to justify the grading fee.
Which grading service should I choose?+
PSA commands the highest premiums for most modern cards. BGS is preferred for their sub-grade detail and 10 "Black Label" designation. CGC is gaining market share with competitive pricing. SGC is popular for vintage cards. Economy/standard services are fine for most submissions — express services only make sense for high-value cards you need quickly.
How do I honestly assess my card condition?+
Use a loupe or magnifying glass. Check all four corners under bright light for any fuzzing or wear. Run your finger along edges feeling for chips or roughness. Examine the surface at an angle for scratches, print dots, or roller marks. Measure centering with a ruler — anything beyond 60/40 on either axis will cap your grade at PSA 8 or below.