Sealed Product EV Calculator
Is that hobby box worth buying? Pick a sealed product, see the expected hit rates and market values, and calculate whether you'll profit or lose money on average.
How we calculate EV:Expected Value = (hit rate × average card value for each insert type) + base card value. Hit rates are based on published odds from manufacturers and verified community data. Card values reflect recent eBay sold prices. Individual box results will vary — EV is a statistical average across many boxes, not a guarantee for any single box.
How the EV Calculator Works
Pick a Product
Select from hobby boxes, blasters, ETBs across baseball, basketball, football, hockey, and Pokemon.
See Hit Rates
We show published pull odds for every insert type: autos, relics, numbered parallels, and more.
Calculate EV
Expected hits x average market value = your expected return. Compared against the purchase price.
Get the Verdict
Green = positive EV (likely profit). Red = negative EV (likely loss). Enter your actual purchase price for custom analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Expected Value (EV) for a sealed card product?
Expected Value is the average amount of value you'd get from opening a sealed product over many openings. It's calculated by multiplying each possible hit's pull rate by its average market value, then adding all those values together plus base card value. A positive EV means you'd profit on average; negative EV means you'd lose money on average.
Should I only buy positive EV products?
Not necessarily. EV is an average — individual boxes can be worth much more or less. Many collectors buy for the experience, to build sets, or to chase specific cards. But if you're buying purely for value, positive EV products are better investments. Also consider that selling individual cards takes time and fees (eBay takes ~13%).
Is a hobby box or blaster a better value?
Hobby boxes generally offer better EV because they guarantee autographs and have better hit rates. But blasters have lower buy-in and offer exclusive parallels. For pure value: hobby boxes. For casual fun: blasters. For retail flipping: blasters and mega boxes when available at MSRP.
Why do most sealed products have negative EV?
Manufacturers price products to make a profit. Most sealed products have slightly negative EV at retail. Products become positive EV when: (1) you find them below retail, (2) a hot rookie or chase card spikes, or (3) the product goes out of print and individual card values rise. Newly released products at MSRP are usually slightly negative EV.
Does EV account for selling fees?
Our EV calculation does NOT factor in selling fees, shipping costs, or time spent listing. If you plan to sell, subtract approximately 15-18% for eBay/TCGPlayer fees and shipping. A product at +5% EV is actually negative after fees.